Abstract

Americans found guilty of charges are put through incarceration, but it is possible that some races are more at risk of being jailed than others. Studying incarceration trends over time might reveal potential inequalities on why some people, whether by race or location, are more likely to be convicted than other people. Thus, this report hopes to tackle some of the issues by revealing these inequalities and suggesting reasons they exist for future analysis.

Introduction

This report hopes to highlight social issues related to incarcerating trends. Thus, the data provided showcases the rates and prison populations of people from the binary genders, and of a spectrum of races. Analyzing this dataset might help decriminalize races that might be disproportionately large in the prison system. Many sentences might also be given for minor offenses. Vera Institute, the provider of this dataset, wants to show that those of color, in poverty, and our unjust prosecution system result in racial disparities in policing and sentencing.

The direct stakeholders are the U.S. Justice system and their corresponding departments and employees as they will be able to visualize the trends of who is being incarcerated (perhaps unjustly) into the prison system. Some central values that will be engaged by these people are fairness, human dignity, and justice. An indirect stakeholder might be communities that are currently facing overpolicing. Vera indicates that many prisoners are those police tend to target more such as the homeless, people with mental illnesses, substance users, and people of color. As such justice, privacy, and security will be values these people will benefit from.

Some questions answered in this report are as follows:
- 1. How has the U.S. jail population changed from 1978 - 2018 and why?
- 2. How has the U.S. Jail population changed in the most populous states (CA, NV, FL, NY) and how does this compare with Washington? What conclusions can we draw from this?
- 3. What does a map showing county’s ratio of black prisoners to white prisoners reveal about geographic inequalities related to our prison systems?

On top of this, the following data summary also answers the following questions:
- 1. Which state has the highest average number of black jail population in 2018?
- 2. Which county has the highest percentage of population that are in prison?
- 3. What year had the highest Asian American / Pacific Islander (AAPI) prison population and where?

Data Summary

In order to find inequalities and add support to the calculations in the following sections, several key points were calculated from the incarceration dataset. First, the state with the highest average number of black jail population in 2018 was found to be Washington D.C. with that number being 1,774 prisoners. This may be a bit surprising considering how small Washington D.C. is. I went ahead and made a table with the following information about Washington D.C.:

State Total Population (15 - 64) Black Population (15 - 64) White Population (15 - 64)
DC 505,340 213,998 207,520

The population of black and white people in Washington D.C. are practically the same proportionally. However, the average white jail population in D.C. is only 60 prisoners. Moreover, the highest average number of white jail population in 2018 was found to be in Arizona with 459 prisoners. This number is much lower than the highest average for black prison populations.

To compare this number with other minority groups, I also wanted to find the location where the highest number of Asian American / Pacific Islander (AAPI) prisoners were held, but this time I did not restrict the year. As such, the result was in 1999 in Los Angeles County, CA with only 893 prisoners. It might be that black neighborhoods are being unfairly enforced, as Asian American communities such as Chinatowns might also have issues with crime but lack of police care for these areas in favor of black communities.

One more value I wanted to calculate was the county with the highest percentage of prisoners in their population. The result was Dickens County, TX, with 16.5% of the 2,249 population in jail.

Growth of U.S. Prison Population

Figure 1: Increase of Jail Population in U.S. (1970 - 2018). This chart shows over time the population of jails has been increasing at a rather steady rate and then seeming to decline from 2008 onwards.

A key pattern in this graph is that while the jail population has been growing steadily, it had been declining since 2008. It might be that laws have been passed that created a more equitable justice system, or that prison reformation has resulted in prisoners being released more than they are being admitted.

Growth of Prison Population By State

Figure 2: Increase of Jail Population of Certain States in the U.S. (1970 - 2018). States were chosen by most populous, and then Washington was included for comparison (and because this is for INFO 201 at the University of Washington). It is similar to Figure 1, but instead of having jail populations of the nation over time it is of a respective state instead.

A key pattern identified in this graph is how California has the highest jail population rate while Washington has the lowest. This might be because California is the most populated state or in general has more criminal activity. Another pattern is that all of these states have declining population rates around 2010. This is similar to figure 1 and might be based off the results of better prison reformation.

[TODO]

Ratio of Black Jail Populations to White Jail Populations

Figure 6: Comparing the ratio of black jail populations to white jail populations per county in the Southern U.S. For example, a ratio of 6 indicates that there are 6 black prisoners per every 1 white prisoner. This part of the United States was chosen since it contained ratios that were much greater than other parts of the United States.

Note: The population variables used in the above figure for the ratios were measured for a singular day and are not a summation for all the prisoners within a timespan such as a year. As such, we can still draw meaningful conclusions from it.

On closer observation, this map reveals a potential inequality such that black people seem to be put in prison more than white people. For instance, the greatest ratios found in the Southern U.S. are in Coahoma, MS, Tunica, MS, and Clarendon, SC with the values of 104, 65, and 52 respectively. A more populous prison county, Shelby, TN, with a 3,883 black prison population and a 883 white prison population shows that for about every 4.5 black prisoners there is 1 white prisoner. As such, deep southern states, especially Mississippi and Alabama, seem to have an overwhelming number of black prisoners compared to white prisoners compared to the rest of the Southern U.S.

It is rather concerning as in the counties listed above, the population breakdown is as follows:

County State Total Population Black Population (15 - 64) White Population (15 - 64)
Coahoma County MS 22,628 10,995 2,700
Tunica County MS 9,944 4,957 1,099
Clarendon County SC 33,700 10,217 9,452
Shelby County TN 935,764 339,105 218,230

While the black population outnumbers the white population, it still doesn’t explain why the ratio of black prisoners to white prisoners is so high. It questions whether black neighborhoods are being overpoliced by officers in power, or whether these states have issues where blacks are disproportionately taking up prison space since they outnumber the white population.